Is Zimbabwe as Risky as Russia ? | Jean Boulle Luxury | Scoop.it

The Zimbabwean risks include the possibility of nationalisation, higher tax rates, a liquidity crisis, a shrinking economy, flight of skills, deteriorating infrastructure, obstructive officials and the return of the Zimbabwean dollar. The good thing is that these risks are well known, to the extent that some investors avoid Zimbabwean equities totally as they do not want to deal with the uncertainties. The obvious risks give us the opportunity to invest in high-quality businesses at valuations that are unheard of in the rest of the world, with the possible exception of Russia. Of course, there is a chance that we are wrong and these companies are in fact overpriced. This will be the case if, rather than the economy stumbling along as we expect, there is an economic collapse similar to the 2000 to 2008 period. We are willing to take this risk. A total economic collapse is unlikely as this is what led to ZANU-PF losing popularity and the election in 2008. When there is no money for the people there is also a lot less money for the politicians – something they want to avoid. In the case of an extreme downside scenario we own quality industrial businesses with little debt that should retain some value.'